The geographers at the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences will assess the impact of prolonged low water level and climate change on geochemical processes in the area of the Don River estuary. The results of the scientific study may provide a key to understanding the upcoming transformations in similar coastal ecosystems in other parts of the world.
Low water level is a reduction in the volume of river flow in relation to the long-term average values. The reduction in the volume of the river flow of the Don has been observed in the last decade and a half. In 2020, the volume of the water entering the Tsimlyansk Reservoir was only a third of the norm. The alternation of low-water and high-water periods is a completely normal natural phenomenon associated with climatic cycles. However, now this process is influenced by general global warming and large-scale impacts as a result of human economic activity. Because of this, the duration of the low-water period increases, and the volume of river flow continues to decrease.
The Don is the main source of water supply for the population and economy of the entire region. Lack of water creates the problem of providing high-quality water resources here. In addition, the river is also an ecosystem in which valuable commercial fish species live. The Don is the most important supplier of fresh water and nutrients to the Sea of Azov, a transport throughway, a natural object of recreational and cultural significance.
In 2022-2023, within the framework of the project of the Russian Science Foundation "Influence of long low water period and climate changes (at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries) on the dynamics of suspended matter in the estuary area of the river Don", the scientists at the Southern Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences will analyze and assess the consequences of changes in the hydrological and hydrochemical regimes of the Sea of Azov during one of the longest periods of low water and climatic anomalies at the end of the 20th–beginning of the 21st centuries.
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The ongoing period of low water, the increase in the relative water level and salinity of the Sea of Azov and Taganrog Bay, strong wind-driven effects lead to an increase in the role of marine factors in the Don delta. During a wind-induced surge, a significant amount of suspended matter (silt, sand) from Taganrog Bay can get here. The geographers will evaluate the dynamics of these suspensions and related chemical compounds in the estuary area of the river, as well as the consequences of the phenomenon for geochemical processes. The results of the scientific study will help to understand the upcoming changes in similar coastal ecosystems, for example, in the southern seas, which are most susceptible to transformation due to climate change.
During the project, it is also planned to assess the current changes in the Don estuary region and make forecasts for the further development of ecosystem processes, as well as the formation of scenarios of economic activity in the region. Mathematical models are used in the work, for the verification of which the scientists use expedition observations, satellite images, and other data.